As promised this is part two of the preview we are doing on the Champions League draw. In case you missed part 1, you can view that here.
CSKA Moscow vs. Sevilla
CSKA Moscow finished second behind group 'B' winners Manchester United. This Moscow side played well but lost 1-0 to that same United team. In the return leg at Old Trafford, they played to a 3-3 tie. The main issue with Moscow is going to be defense. They had the 6th worse defense in group play in terms of overall goals conceded. When you look at their play on the road they were tied for 2nd in terms of most goals conceded. Not good considering they have to play a Sevilla side that is only one of nine teams (out of 32) to score in double digits during group play. Sevilla will be hoping that Frederic Kanoute and Luis Fabiano continue to provide the goals. Over two legs, Sevilla should have just enough to out class CSKA. The Spanish team are currently 3rd in La Liga and will have the added benefit of playing the second leg at home.
Team to Progress: Sevilla
Lyon vs. Real Madrid
This is a game that has not received as much attention as the Inter Milan - Chelsea match or the AC Milan - Manchester United match but this has the potential to be just as good as said matches. Lyon have not been as dominant as they once were in Europe. They also have not been as dominant in Ligue 1 in France. Half way through the season they sit in 4th place and 10 points off the pace of league leaders Bordeaux. This match will be decided based on Lyon's defense. They were tied for 2nd in terms of goals conceded having only shipped three in six matches. You probably can already guess which team led the Champions League group stages in goal scoring. As expected Real Madrid have looked sharp in front of goal and scored a healthy return of goals thanks in part to Christiano Ronaldo who leads the tournament in goals with 6. If Ronaldo, Kaka, and Benzema are all healthy you can bank on them giving Lyon fits. Lyon's defense was admirable during the group stages, but I don't think they have what it takes to shut out Madrid's attack. I actually think Real Madrid will win this tie and I would not be surprised if it is the long serving Raul who puts them through.
Team to Progress: Real Madrid
Porto vs. Arsenal
I would like to go on record and say that I truly don't believe that Arsenal would make it as far as they do in the Champions League if they had a the same luck of the draw as Manchester United or even Chelsea. It seems like every year they get the easiest group draw of any of the English teams. If you were to ask Arsene Wenger he has probably never complained about a Champions League draw, and he complains a lot! At any rate I don't see Porto having a chance against Arsenal. Porto are not known for having a particularly strong defense and that was shown last year when Arsenal decimated Porto by a score of 4-0 in group play. Porto are led up front by the incredible Hulk (it was easy) and Falcao. Unfortunately against Arsenal you need to have leaders in the back to cope with their attacking play. Porto lost only two games during the group stages and they were both against a strong Chelsea side. I imagine they will lose both games of this tie and will be embarrassed by the time they leave Emirates stadium in early March.
Team to Progress: Arsenal
AC Milan vs. Manchester United
In part 1, I mentioned that their were two matches that made me question whether the Champions League draws are actually random or part of a plan to wring out as much money from television networks, advertisers, and ultimately fans. There is big chance you will see a post on that issue in the future. Until then we will be bombarded with stories of David Beckham's return to Old Trafford on March 10, 2010. Looking at the two teams at full strength I have to give the edge to United. This is a team that is stacked in every position. You can bet on their defense being close to fully fit when these matches roll around and that is what will see them through. Milan are a good team with quality players. Ronaldinho looks to be back at a level that is expected of his ability. Pato is a player I am a big fan of and Clarence Seedorf is just a classy player. The reason why United are so difficult to beat is because they have a midfield for all occasions. If Fergie needs a three man midfield he can count on Fletcher, Carrick, and Scholes to get the job done. If he needs a midfield diamond he can use Giggs at the point with Valencia filling in on the right side. Look for United to go through without too many problems.
Team to Progress: Manchester United
